I'd hoped to quickly post some thoughts about Trump and the GOP ACA DMZ (endgame TBD; GOP VIPS in CYA mode), but Frankie Valli and his Four Horsemen have interfered. Lisa's satellite radio station could have benefitted from extreme vetting, because I didn't really need this ugly reminder that the Jersey boys had unaccountably continued their reign of Bubblegum Terror into the era of disco. (For the record, I like bubblegum; it's just that when I'm trying to think, that's an uphill battle to begin with, and the last thing I need is some Garden State merchant of Wonkaism blowing fairy dust into my failing ears. Accordingly, I've dialed up a Merzbow album. Ah, the hideous liquor of Japanese scrapings and post-modern treble shards! BROMMMM WADDA WADDA WADDA ARNNNNNNNN AIIIIIIIEEE etc.)
Ok, ear worm shooed out the door, time to get back on point.
This morning's Post brings a clarifying admixture of Trump news. For the record, my position here is not really about tweaking people for being against Obamacare. That's a typical, and understandable, tactic of my friends on the liberal spectrum, but let's say for argument's sake that at least some of the objection to ACA is due to its flaws. I'm happy to concede that much, if it means we can have a conversation about it.
But my observation is this: Trump's eagerness to embrace the Paul Ryan solution, and the reaction to this from the right, is the most interesting part of the story. I interpret Trump's stance on this as evidence for what I've said many times, which is that our president isn't really about ideology or even idea; he's committed to getting good reviews. It really bugs him that Obama's early weeks were marked by action and achievement. Some would call it governing, I suppose, and even those who recall Obama as an evil Disney stepsister would have to concede that he got things done early on. But Trump's salad days in the Oval Office have been chock full of bad reviews, and his various tantrums blaming this scapegoat and that for all of it, which has tended to generate still more criticism. The problem with the Trump-as-Evil-Genius model is that his default setting, the torrent of abusive logorrhea unmoored from facts and standardized spelling, plays better to a hateful mob than to the press; the primaries require primary colors in your rhetoric, while governance requires a kind of phony pastel sobriety. Most presidents, even the ones I don't care for, realize this long before they are given the keys.
Trump is no normal leader. He has a pathology about criticism, which is that he literally cannot tolerate it. And his fabled dealmaking prowess is unrelated to results; anyone that psychologically dedicated to making a deal go through is proceeding on instinct much or all of the time. A private sector deal maker can make a deal and then retire to his gold leaf and fireside butler, without worrying about the press dissecting the aftermath. After a real estate deal, a man can insulate himself from the dull details of what naysayers are saying after the fact. What of it? The deal is done, now it's just another notch on the portfolio.
But the presidency is quite another story. And this specific presidency would be an Augean task even for a policy wonk, which Trump assuredly is not. Trump on the trail did what he's always done- he told allies what they wanted to hear, and insulted his enemies. Fortunately for him, our country's intellectual life had devolved to the point where his bifurcated approach actually seemed logical, even thrilling, to the many white working class folks who had been ill served by both parties for years. Suddenly, he had a giant audience of people who liked both sides of him. The high octane insult machine WAS what they wanted to hear! He was in an analogous position to the many purveyors of superficial pop music who have dominated our country's culture for decades. You mean that crowd out there wants antiseptic music AND big breasts shaken in their faces? That's awesome! Those are the things I'm good at!
Which brings us to today. Trump promised a lot to the people that believed in him, and he generally did it billboard size. I'd argue there's no other subject where the GOP has a tougher hand to play than the ACA, and this scenario where they have to please both the rigid ideological right and the many many working class conservatives who are filled with Clinton/Obama hatred and also diabetes etc. is a lot harder than just railing against a Democrat. It was easy to square that circle when Obama was in charge, but now they have a real problem on their hands-- they have to fashion policy that will avoid socialism while pleasing constituents who don't really know what socialism is, but they know enough about deficits to know that you can't pay exorbitant medical bills if you don't have a job. Trump has essentially promised to bring back the jobs, extend cheap and effective insurance to all, and squash deficits. I don't think anyone alive actually knows how to do all of that at once, and because Trump doesn't really understand policy the way he understands public relations, he's taken the most convenient route by allying himself with Ryan. He's hoping Ryan will push it through and put another deal in Trump's column, but the many tea party politicians who have gradually elbowed their way into Congress aren't playing. They like Trump because he banished the Hillary ogre, but they don't want him to get in bed with Ryan. Because none of this can really be resolved, we have people like Laura Ingraham and Newt Gingrich suggesting that Trump has just been innocently fooled by GOP elites. This particular framing caught my attention big league, because it's the first time I've heard any Trump fans refer to him in this paternalistic way. Trump presented himself as a kind of savior figure, a John Wayne who could ride into town and just keep firing until all the bad guys were dead. The Gingriches of the world loved it, and seemed to believe it, and they told us Trump would deliver with ease because of his bottomless pit of brilliance and un-liberal common sense. Now they tell us he's been manipulated by elites.
This, of course, makes no sense. If Trump can magically cut through all the bullshit of Washington, and wrap up our economic woes and kick ISIS's Muslim asses into an unforgiving eternity, how can he be fooled so easily by the Justin Bieber of Ayn Randian philosophy? I suppose they'll spin it by reminding us that he's new to the game, and well intentioned, and so forth, but you can't treat the man like he's Bruce Lee one day and Jimmy Stewart the next.
This is perhaps the appropriate time for me to trot out my Amazing Bonzoni Theory™.
Imagine that a chimp moves in next door to you, and this chimp wears a silk robe and a bejeweled turban, kind of like a simian blend of Jonny Quest's Hadji and Liberace. This chimp's human housemate assures you that the ape can predict the future. Moreover, whereas most chimps have modest names like Pickles or Larry, this one is called The Amazing Bonzoni.
Your first impulse is skepticism. But you begin reflecting on all the ways a prognosticating monkey neighbor could benefit you financially. It's a long list, and if you're a certain kind of organism (human), at some point the fantasy just becomes too seductive. Whenever you ask The Bonzoni's spokesperson about hypotheticals, the answer is always swift and affirmative. Can he tell you which entree will be the most delicious? Yes. Can he predict dog race winners? Yes. Can he predict football game spreads? Yes. Can he help you win a lottery? Yes. Can he get you a job, vanquish a mysterious evil race of millions, and end political correctness?
Yes, he can. Because he's The Amazing Bonzoni.
Right now, we are in the period where a normal con man, one with even modest intellectual gifts, would be skipping town. But a con man of modest intellectual gifts would not run for president. You could make a case that our two party system is itself a con game, and one where the well-dressed bunco artists don't ever leave town, because they can inoculate themselves against criticism by always blaming the other party when the predictions don't come true. We've had decades of that, but in hindsight perhaps it wasn't sustainable. Now an outlier has arrived who has no filter. He's promised too many things, and blamed too many scapegoats. And the grande-sized blowhards who have linked arms with him don't really have an exit strategy. The weaselly excuses may work for a while, but at some point the people are going to demand the venti coffee they paid venti cash for. And if these credulous customers figure out that the machine behind the counter has broken down, some of them may begin to wonder exactly how all of it can be the fault of Hillary Clinton, Obama, and the media. I assume that when things go south, Trump won't accept any blame. He may have to resort to scapegoating the Ryans and McConnells, and while many Trump fans will probably buy it, the party won't like it. They didn't like it when Ted Cruz strayed from the reservation during the deficit miniseries that captivated America's hearts a few seasons back, and they're definitely not going to like Trump's tweets when he's forced to expand the circle of scapegoats to include all the old white guys who weren't inclined to publicly oppose him.
You can only put so many new holes in a belt before suspenders are needed. Thanks, physics.
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